劲爆大瓜

VATICAN CITY (AP) 鈥� A popular saying in Vatican circles is that if you 鈥渆nter a conclave as pope, you leave as a cardinal.鈥�

It implies is no popularity contest or campaign, but rather the divinely inspired election of Christ鈥檚 Vicar on Earth by the princes of the church.

Still, , known as 鈥減apabile,鈥� who have at least some of the qualities considered necessary to be pope 鈥� much like those depicted in last year's Oscar-nominated film 鈥淐onclave.鈥�

Any baptized Catholic male is eligible, though only cardinals have been selected since 1378. The winner must receive at least two-thirds of the vote from those cardinals under age 80 and thus eligible to participate. , appointed the vast majority of electors, often tapping men who share his pastoral priorities, which suggests continuity rather than rupture.

Anyone trying to handicap the outcome should remember that was considered too old to be elected pope in 2013 at age 76, and that Karol Wojtyla wasn鈥檛 on any front-runner lists going into the 1978 conclave that elected him Pope John Paul II.

Some possible candidates:

Cardinal Peter Erdo

Erdo, 72, the archbishop of Budapest and primate of Hungary, was twice elected head of the Council of European Episcopal Conferences, in 2005 and 2011, suggesting he enjoys the esteem of European cardinals who make up the biggest voting bloc of electors. In that capacity, Erdo got to know many African cardinals because the council hosts regular sessions with African bishops鈥� conferences. Erdo had even more exposure when he helped organize Francis鈥� 2014 and 2015 Vatican meetings on the family and delivered key speeches, as well as during in 2021 and 2023.

Cardinal Reinhard Marx

Marx, 71, the archbishop of Munich and Freising, was chosen by Francis as a key adviser in 2013. Marx later was named to head the council overseeing Vatican finances during reforms and belt-tightening. The former president of the German bishops鈥� conference was a strong proponent of the controversial 鈥渟ynodal path鈥� process of dialogue in the German church that began in 2020 as a response to the there. As a result, he is viewed with skepticism by conservatives who considered the process a threat to church unity, given it involved debating issues such as celibacy, homosexuality and women鈥檚 ordination. when he dramatically offered to resign as archbishop to atone for the German church鈥檚 dreadful abuse record, but Francis quickly rejected the resignation and told him to stay.

Cardinal Marc Ouellet

, 80, of Canada, led the Vatican鈥檚 influential bishops office for over a decade, overseeing the key clearinghouse for potential candidates to head dioceses around the world. Francis kept Ouellet in the job until 2023, even though he was appointed by Pope Benedict XVI, and thus helped select the more doctrinaire bishops preferred by the German pontiff. Considered more of a conservative than Francis, Ouellet still selected pastorally minded bishops to reflect Francis鈥� belief that bishops should 鈥渟mell like the sheep鈥� of their flock. Ouellet defended priestly celibacy for the Latin Rite church and upheld the ban on women鈥檚 ordination but called for women to have a greater role in church governance. He has good contacts with the Latin American church, having headed the Vatican鈥檚 Pontifical Commission for Latin America for over a decade. Since 2019, his office has taken charge of investigating bishops accused of covering up for predator priests, a job that would have made him no friends among those sanctioned but also could have given him lots of otherwise confidential and possibly compromising information about fellow cardinals.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin

Parolin, 70, of Italy, has been Francis鈥� secretary of state since 2014 and is considered one of the main contenders to be pope, given his prominence in the Catholic hierarchy. The veteran diplomat oversaw the Holy See鈥檚 controversial and was involved -- but not charged -- in the Vatican鈥檚 botched investment in a London real estate venture that led to a 2021 trial of another cardinal and nine others. A former ambassador to Venezuela, Parolin knows the Latin American church well. He would be seen as someone who would continue in Francis鈥� tradition but as a more sober and timid diplomatic insider, returning an Italian to the papacy after three successive outsiders: St. John Paul II (Poland); Benedict (Germany) and Francis (Argentina). But while Parolin has managed the Vatican bureaucracy, he has no real pastoral experience. His ties to the London scandal, in which his office lost tens of millions of dollars to bad deals and shady businessmen, could count against him.

Cardinal Robert Prevost

The idea of an American pope has long been taboo, given the geopolitical power already wielded by the United States. But the Chicago-born Prevost, 69, could be a first. He has extensive experience in Peru, first as a missionary and then an archbishop, and he is currently prefect of the Vatican鈥檚 powerful dicastery for bishops, in charge of vetting nominations for bishops around the world. Francis clearly had an eye on him for years and sent him to run the diocese of Chiclayo, Peru, in 2014. He held that position until 2023, when Francis brought him to Rome for his current role. Prevost is also president of the Pontifical Commission for Latin America, a job that keeps him in regular contact with the Catholic hierarchy in the part of the world that still counts the most Catholics. In addition to his nationality, Prevost鈥檚 comparative youth could count against him if his brother cardinals don鈥檛 want to commit to a pope who might reign for another two decades.

Cardinal Robert Sarah

Sarah, 79, of Guinea, the retired head of the Vatican鈥檚 liturgy office, was long considered the best hope for an African pope. Beloved by conservatives, Sarah would signal a return to the doctrinaire and liturgically minded papacies of John Paul II and Benedict. Sarah, who had previously headed the Vatican鈥檚 charity office Cor Unum, clashed on several occasions with Francis, none more seriously than when advocating the 鈥渘ecessity鈥� of continued celibacy for Latin Rite priests. The book came out as Francis was weighing whether to allow married priests in the Amazon to address a priest shortage there. The implication was that Sarah had manipulated Benedict into lending his name and moral authority to a book that had all the appearances of being a counterweight to Francis' own teaching. Francis dismissed Benedict鈥檚 secretary and several months later retired Sarah after he turned 75. Even Sarah鈥檚 supporters lamented the episode hurt his papal chances.

Cardinal Christoph Schoenborn

Schoenborn, 80, the archbishop of Vienna, Austria, was a student of Benedict's, and thus on paper seems to have the doctrinaire academic chops to appeal to conservatives. However, he became associated with one of Francis鈥� most controversial moves by to divorced and civilly remarried Catholics as an 鈥渙rganic development of doctrine,鈥� not the rupture that some conservatives contended. Schoenborn鈥檚 parents divorced when he was a teen, so the issue is personal. He also took heat from the Vatican when he criticized its past refusal to sanction high-ranking sexual abusers, including his predecessor as archbishop of Vienna. Schoenborn has expressed support for civil unions and women as deacons, and was instrumental in editing the 1992 update of the Catechism of the Catholic Church, the handbook of the church鈥檚 teaching that Benedict had spearheaded when he headed the Vatican鈥檚 doctrine office.

Cardinal Luis Tagle

Tagle, 67, of the Philippines, would appear to be Francis鈥� pick for the first Asian pope. Francis brought the popular archbishop of Manila to Rome to head the Vatican鈥檚 missionary evangelization office, which serves the needs of the Catholic Church in much of Asia and Africa. His role took on greater weight when Francis reformed the Vatican bureaucracy and raised the importance of his evangelization office. Tagle often cites his Chinese lineage 鈥� his maternal grandmother was part of a Chinese family that moved to the Philippines -- and he is known for becoming emotional when discussing his childhood. Though he has pastoral, Vatican and management experience -- he headed the Vatican鈥檚 federation of charity groups before coming to Rome permanently -- Tagle would be on the young side to be elected pope for life, with cardinals perhaps preferring an older candidate whose papacy would be more limited.

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi

Zuppi, 69, the archbishop of Bologna and president of the Italian bishops conference, elected in 2022, is closely affiliated with the Sant鈥橢gidio Community, a Rome-based Catholic charity that was influential under Francis, particularly in interfaith dialogue. Zuppi was part of Sant鈥橢gidio鈥檚 team that helped negotiate the end of Mozambique鈥檚 civil war in the 1990s and was named Francis' for Russia's war in Ukraine. Francis made him a cardinal in 2019 and later made clear he wanted him in charge of Italy鈥檚 bishops, a sign of his admiration for the prelate who, like Francis, is known as a 鈥渟treet priest.鈥� In another sign of his progressive leanings and closeness to Francis, Zuppi wrote the introduction to the Italian edition of 鈥淏uilding a Bridge,鈥� by the Rev. James Martin, an American Jesuit, about the church鈥檚 need to improve its outreach to the LGBTQ+ community. Zuppi would be a candidate in Francis鈥� tradition of ministering to those on the margins, although his relative youth would count against him for cardinals seeking a short papacy. His family had strong institutional ties: Zuppi鈥檚 father worked for the Vatican newspaper L鈥橭sservatore Romano, and his mother was the niece of Cardinal Carlo Confalonieri, dean of the College of Cardinals in the 1960s and 1970s.

The Associated Press